spent the day today catching up on Michael Yeadon’s take on the government’s, particularly SAGE’s handling of the pandemic, especially the lockdown in November. Like to be abreast of the news and keep in touch with the latest developments around the pandemic.
So here is my overview on the discussion- By Martin Kahn
Why do we need lockdown?
There is evidence that measures like hand washing, wearing a mask, social distancing, testing, tracing, and quarantine can control the spread of infection to manageable levels. The lockdown so we were told ,helps over and above this and gives the healthcare systems time to get ready for the surge of infections as pandemic progresses. The effectiveness of a lockdown, although debatable helps in flattening the curve. We saved around 20,000 lives in the UK alone through the lockdown by an estimate. We were once leading the global coronavirus mortality rate chart in August and have come a long way since.
How the lockdown has affected us?
The UK annually generates an output of approximately 2 trillion GBP which has shrunk by about 9% and thus creating a shortfall of 130 billion GBP. Unemployment is standing at 1.6 million. Children missing school will have to catch up eventually, and the waiting list at NHS for non-COVID-19 patients has gone up hugely. Up to 1.6 miilion cancer screenings missed, heart and diabetes patients put on more longer waiting lists .There has been huge mental health issues with isolation and general loneliness with elderly patinets and amny people dying at home acccording to laests stats.
Are people unhappy with the lockdown?
Yes, there have been several anti-lockdown protests in the UK since May and now people are getting really angry The recent ones have been in and around London, especially since the announcement for stricter measures and a possible 2nd lockdown in January. There is a feeling that lockdowns have run their course and restriction on mixing in houses and gardens with a fine of up GBP 10000 is socially destructive. Using the military in the COVID-19 testing programme has raised eyebrows in some quarters and with the scarmongering tactics with very poor data from Sage it has left many furious.
What is SAGE saying?
Some SAGE advisors say it is unlikely that we will control the virus by December and that there will be further lockdowns in January. The prediction model used to decide the November lockdown carries the only limited prospective impact of the tiered restrictions put in place at the start of October. It also has a lag because of the data only up to the latest estimate howver it has been very wrong in its estoimation at 4000 deaths a day. The model therefore cannot project everything that will happen. It may serve as a guide since it is data over six months.
What is Michael Yeadon saying?
In gist, Michael Yeadon is calling for an end to the lockdown restrictions. In his view, mass testing is fuelling high false-positive numbers, creating a pandemic like an environment, and therefore stopped immediately. In short, the pandemic is over!!!
What is Michael Yeadon’s reasoning for his claims?
1. 30% of the population has cross-immunity because of common cold infections or viral infections. This is because COVID-19 is 80% like SARS and in parts like common cold Corona Virus. (SAGE claims cross-immunity of 0%) THis he sayus is basic immunology training and insists that Sir Patrick Valllance would abolutley know this but failed to use this in his predicitions for the first lockdown.
2. At least 60% of the population is now immune. This includes 50% of people with T cell immunity (longer lasting) plus and 7% only antibodies immunity. So, almost 60% population now immune to the virus. So, we are towards the end of the pandemic (Sage claims 7% of the population infected and 90% still vulnerable, so pandemic is growing).
3. The PCR test is unsuitable. It picks up viral RNA from other sources. Prevalence of significant false-positive and a high number of positives in winter is commonplace Therefore, the high numbers or positives shows a second wave and has now been deemed uselessfor any furthe case of more lockdowns in Portugal.
Given the fact that the PCR test is not fit for purpose and there is no excess deaths or excess hospital deaths as well as the hospitals and ICU units being stable throughtout the country surely now the governemnt will allow people to get on with their lives and get back to normal. In additon we also now know the fallout from any lockdown is greater than the disease itself ,I truly hope that common sense will prevail.
