Football is renowned for its unpredictability, and a prime example of that is when a team is losing, but then dramatically turns the game around to produce an unexpected victory. Regardless of the actual timing of the comeback, this scenario is referred to as “win from behind”.
A betting option to back a team to “win from behind” can be found at all leading bookmakers, including those ranked on platforms like Legalbet.uk, which reviews operators and assesses the quality of their betting odds and services.
Sportsbooks offer both pre-match and live in-play bets on the “To Win from Behind” option, and the odds on a team claiming a victory in such a manner are always priced longer than just the regular quote in the Match Winner market. Here we look at what influences those longer prices.
“Win from Behind”: What’s the Catch with the Bet?
Bookmakers offer several types of bets on a win from behind — a victory by either team, a win by a specific team, or a comeback based on the half-time result. The odds for the first option are lower than for the others, as it carries fewer conditions like not being team-specific and therefore incorporates less risk.
A “win from behind” means that a team will fall behind at any stage of a match before ultimately winning it. A real-life example of this can be seen from Matchday 22 of the 2025/26 German Bundesliga, a game between Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim. Werder Bremen opened the scoring in the 7th minute, but then Hoffenheim completed a comeback to win the fixture 3-1.
Live Betting
Live bets on this aspect allow bettors to better assess a team’s chances of staging a comeback, by watching the game. However, even in real-time, such a bet remains high-risk because of the many variables from player form to tactics and refereeing decisions that come into play.
Statistics can be helpful in pinpointing teams who have made a habit of coming from behind and who always seem to fight until the final whistle. A striking example is Liverpool early in the 2023/24 season, who conceded first in seven matches but still went on to win each of them.
At that time, the Reds were defying the trend in the Premier League. According to research, over the past five years, the team that scored first went on to win around 60% of matches and this figure dropped to just 14% in games involving the Merseyside club.
Why the Odds Are So High
Odds for a “win from behind” bet often start at 5.00. For example, ahead of the second leg of the Champions League play-off round between AC Milan and Feyenoord, bookmakers offered odds starting at 9.00 for the Dutch side to come from behind and win.
As big match underdogs, Feyenoord would likely not have had much appeal to bettors to record a win having fallen behind against such a strong favourite. Match favourites are statistically more likely to recover from a losing position because of their strengths than underdogs.
However, in this example AC Milan did fall behind and couldn’t only do enough to recover for a draw, a result which adds another element of risk to this type of wager. These long odds are not only a chance for a big payout, but also a reflection of how difficult such outcomes are to predict.
Several factors affect the probability of a comeback:
- Player Stamina and Mentality: Players’ heads can drop after conceding a goal, lessening the chance of a turnaround.
- Coaching Decisions: Tactical changes and substitutions can either save the match or worsen the situation.
- Opponent’s Performance: If the leading team defends well and maintains possession, it becomes difficult for the trailing side to find weaknesses.
- Element of Chance: Refereeing errors, red cards, own goals — all of these can influence the outcome.
Bookmakers analyse the likelihood of a comeback and set the prices accordingly, factoring in all potential risks. Here are the main reasons why the odds in this market are always inflated:
- The rarity of the Outcome: Wins from behind are relatively uncommon. While high odds may attract punters, the statistics are not in their favour. For example, in the five rounds of the EPL (Matchdays 21 to 25), only 7 out of 50 matches ended in comeback wins — just 14% of the total.
- Multiple Conditions: For the bet to win, several things need to happen, a team must concede, equalise, and then take the lead which is a lot of variables.
- Player Psychology: Statistically, winning a match from a losing position is tough, vastly different from winning from a position of parity. It’s even rarer if a team is more than one goal behind at any stage.
- Risk for Bookmakers: High odds equate to an implied probability. A win from behind is a long shot and therefore the probability is low, forcing the bookmaker’s hands into long odds, but they still work their profit margin into them to mitigate risk.
- Random Factors: Bookmakers account for the game’s inherent uncertainty in their odds.
How to Bet on Comebacks
If you’ve decided to try your luck and place a bet on a win from behind, don’t forget the importance of analysis. Look for teams that typically score goals in the final fifteen minutes of matches and who are good in general at recovering from losing situations.
In-play betting is a good arena for following these bet types, and teams with a strong attacking style are more likely to stage a comeback. What’s riding on the game can also have an influence. If it’s a cup final and a team’s losing with 10 minutes to go, they’ll likely press harder than they would in a midweek, mid-table league fixture.
