Head teachers are warning of “volatility” in this year’s A-level results, after more than a third of entries in England were lowered by one full grade as part of a moderation process implemented after exams were cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic.Â
New figures just released by Ofqual show that 36% of overall entries were downgraded by one grade compared with teacher predictions.
The Sixth Form Colleges Association has called the moderation system “flawed and unreliable,” after almost all colleges said grades were “drastically lower” than predicted.
The new system used data including results in previous years at each school or college to determine whether the grades awarded were too generous or too severe, and adjust them up or down as appropriate.
Commenting on a survey conducted to assess the discrepancy in results, Bill Watkin, Chief Executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association, said:
“Our survey suggests that the government’s model for calculating this year’s A level grades is flawed and unreliable.
“A fundamental objective of the process was to ensure year-on-year comparability in exam results – the very clear evidence from our members is that the standardisation model has utterly failed to achieve this.
“While the national picture is likely to show no significant overall change in grades awarded this year, this average figure masks huge variations. Our members, who between them deliver a quarter of the A levels sat in England each year, have experienced inexplicable variations.
“The only way the government can rescue this situation, and ensure that thousands of students are not disadvantaged, is to base results entirely on centre assessed grades – the predictions made by teachers. This is the only alternative to what has proved to be a failed experiment by the government to develop a fair process of standardisation.”
It’s not all bad news for students, however. The figures released by Ofqual figures also show that this year’s results could have one of the highest-ever proportions of A* and A grades.
In England, Wales and Northern Ireland, almost 1 in 10 entries, 9%, were graded A* – up from 7.8% in 2019.
Furthermore, for students hoping for university places, the admissions service UCAS has said it expects universities to be “super flexible” this year for those who have missed their grades.
