UK advertisers are heading into the 2025 festive period with more confidence than many expected. Fresh data from the Advertising Association and WARC shows that spending in the final quarter of the year is set to reach about £12 billion, roughly £814 million higher than in 2024. That rise matters because the Christmas stretch still shapes how retailers, publishers, platforms, and service businesses close the year, and advertising remains a part of the economy that keeps those seasonal sales moving. Activity in this quarter also helps set the tone for 2026, so a stronger finish carries weight across sectors.
Most of the extra spending is flowing toward digital formats. The forecast points to online channels taking around 83% of total ad spend in the Golden Quarter, with search, including retail media, accounting for close to 40%. That is where e-commerce brands, delivery services, and streaming platforms are fighting for attention.
Many entertainment and hospitality companies are also expanding their reach online, from event ticketing sites to mobile gaming platforms that depend on quick conversions and repeat engagement. Within that same environment, UK casinos not on gamstop have become more visible as part of the wider surge in digital advertising. Their campaigns now focus on larger game libraries, fewer betting restrictions, faster payouts, and bigger bonuses compared to casino sites affiliated with the UK’s gambling self-exclusion network, gamstop. These features align with festive marketing themes built around value and convenience, positioning these platforms alongside other entertainment brands competing for attention during the high-spend Christmas period.
Digital video formats are also benefiting from this broader shift. Video on demand sits beside search as one of the strongest growth stories in the forecast. VOD advertising is expected to rise by more than 17% year on year in the fourth quarter, supported by the shift to streamed and catch-up viewing. Brands like the format because it is measurable, flexible, and effective for reaching audiences who watch little traditional television. Even though parts of the wider TV market remain under pressure from weaker business confidence, digital video keeps drawing investment because it combines scale with precise targeting at the moment households are deciding what to buy.
Offline channels still have a role. For instance, out-of-home advertising revenue reached a record £1.4 billion in 2024, showing how strong the medium remains as part of the wider mix. Cinema and outdoor formats are both forecast to grow as people travel, shop, and meet more in November and December. Smaller increases are expected for direct mail and radio. For London in particular, where footfall around transport hubs, shopping streets, and offices climbs sharply in the run-up to Christmas, these channels reinforce the messages people already see on their phones. A strong digital plan can be matched with location-based media so that the same creative follows the audience from screen to high street without wasting spend.
The report also shows that this is not only a seasonal spike. Actual ad spend in the second quarter of 2025 reached about £11.3 billion, up just over 9% on the year. VOD was again the fastest-growing channel, with gains for online radio, online magazines, and direct mail. That mix suggests advertisers are building layered campaigns that use reach where it is needed and rely on data-driven tools to refine targeting and measurement.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains positive, though the pace is expected to ease. Total UK ad spend is forecast to reach about £45.2 billion in 2025 and to rise to roughly £47.8 billion in 2026, according to Advertising Association and WARC data published earlier this year. Search and online display should continue expanding, TV is expected to return to growth, and radio should see a modest increase. The main risk lies in sentiment. Both business and consumer confidence have softened since the summer due to concerns about inflation and the possibility of higher taxes in the next Budget, which may make some marketers more selective.
Even with those pressures, the message for London-based firms, publishers, and agencies remains clear. Brands are not planning to go quiet this Christmas. They are funneling money into formats that deliver measurable results, tightening their offers for adults across retail and entertainment, and using the festive rush to build momentum for next year. Advertising continues to circulate money through the wider UK economy at the time of year when it is needed most, which is why this forecast matters for anyone focused on business growth.
